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Incongruent Logic To Balance Risks Leads To Incongruent Markets With Nothing...
In February 2013, Federal Reserve Board Governor Jeremy Stein gave a speech at a research symposium produced by the St. Louis branch of the Federal Reserve that shocked quite a lot of people. QE3 and...
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Clues to the Origins And Stubbornness of the ‘Rising Dollar’
On March 9, 2016, front month trading for Japanese government bond (JGB) futures was halted at 12:32 pm Tokyo time. Selling had become intense, tripping the Osaka Exchange’s dynamic circuit breaker....
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The Oil of ‘Dollars’, Japanese ‘Dollars’
Starting June 8, oil prices began falling again, reversing their more optimistic trend that had lingered since February 11 long after the usual correlation to CNY was broken. In fact, by the time WTI...
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Liquidity Risk Is Very Real And Really Not That Hard To Spot And Define
Going back to Japan for a third time today (it is more than deserved), at least in the setup, the Financial Times on August 1 astutely picked up what the rest of the mainstream media missed about the...
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Dollars (TIC) In May: Consistently Inconsistent
The TIC data for May was inconsistent. It has been that way for several months, and importantly describes what I think is the operative “dollar” condition. Though the data is several months old...
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Is It Over?
The world is full of anomalies. It may seem like a paradox, but financial markets are particularly eventful places. Something happens, some people notice, and most often it goes…nowhere. It’s all the...
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Brazil Money Math
On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in...
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FOMC: Trust Us, Funding Pressures Don’t Really Matter
Before the repo rumble this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell wanted to coast into a second rate cut on the comforting breeze of his insurance rhetoric. No longer one and done, that’s done, a...
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A Repo Deluge…of Necessary Data
Just in time for more discussions about repo, the Federal Reserve delivers. Not in terms of the repo market, mind you, despite what you hear bandied about in the financial media the Fed doesn’t...
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What IS The Problem?
The 3-month Treasury bill’s equivalent yield has plunged, absolutely plunged. It was 1.45% last Thursday. Today? All of 45 bps. A one-hundred bp drop in six trading sessions. One hundred. Six days....
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